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The Statements of Social Insurance provide estimates of the status of the most significant social insurance programs: Social Security, Medicare, Railroad Retirement, and Black Lung social insurance programs, which are administered by the Social Security Administration (SSA), HHS, the Railroad Retirement Board (RRB), and the Department of Labor (DOL), respectively. The estimates are actuarial present values 2 of the projections and are based on the economic and demographic assumptions representing the trustees’ reasonable estimates as set forth in the relevant Social Security and Medicare trustees’ reports and in the agency financial report of HHS and DOL (Black Lung) and in the relevant agency performance and accountability reports for the SSA and RRB. The projections are based on the continuation of program provisions contained in current law.
The magnitude and complexity of social insurance programs, coupled with the extreme sensitivity of projections relating to the many assumptions of the programs, produce a wide range of possible results. In preparing the Statements of Social Insurance, Government management considers and selects assumptions and data that it believes provide a reasonable basis for the assertions in the statement. However, because of the large number of factors that affect the Statements of Social Insurance and the fact that such assumptions are inherently subject to substantial uncertainty (arising from the likelihood of future events, significant uncertainties, and contingencies), there will be differences between the estimates in the Statements of Social Insurance and the actual results, and those differences may be material. Note 26—Social Insurance describes the social insurance programs, reports long-range estimates that can be used to assess the financial condition of the programs, and explains some of the factors that impact the various programs. Using this information, readers can apply their own judgment as to the condition and sustainability of the individual programs. The Statement of Changes in Social Insurance Amount reconciles the change between the current valuation period and the prior valuation period.
| (In billions of dollars) |
2011 |
2010
|
2009
|
2008
|
2007
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Old-Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance (Social Security): 14 | |||||
| Revenue (Contributions and Earmarked Taxes) from: | |||||
| Participants who have attained eligibility age (62 and over) |
726 | 672 | 575 | 542 | 477 |
| Participants who have not attained eligibility age | 20,734 | 19,914 | 18,559 | 18,249 | 17,515 |
| Future participants | 20,144 | 19,532 | 18,082 | 17,566 | 16,121 |
| All current and future participants | 41,603 | 40,118 | 37,217 | 36,357 | 34,113 |
| Expenditures for Scheduled Future Benefits for: | |||||
| Participants who have attained eligibility age (62 and over) |
(8,618) | (8,096) | (7,465) | (6,958) | (6,329) |
| Participants who have not attained eligibility age | (34,042) | (32,225) | (30,207) | (29,021) | (27,928) |
| Future participants | (8,100) | (7,744) | (7,223) | (6,933) | (6,619) |
| All current and future participants | (50,760) | (48,065) | (44,894) | (42,911) | (40,876) |
| Present value of future expenditures in excess of future revenue |
(9,157) 1 | (7,947) 2 | (7,677) 3 | (6,555) 4 | (6,763) 5 |
| Federal Hospital Insurance (Medicare Part A): 14 | |||||
| Revenue (Contributions and Earmarked Taxes) from: | |||||
| Participants who have attained eligibility age (65 and over) |
262 | 248 | 209 | 202 | 178 |
| Participants who have not attained eligibility age |
7,581 | 7,216 | 6,348 | 6,320 | 5,975 |
| Future participants | 7,260 | 6,944 | 5,451 | 5,361 | 4,870 |
| All current and future participants | 15,104 | 14,408 | 12,008 | 11,883 | 11,023 |
| Expenditures for Scheduled Future Benefits for: | |||||
| Participants who have attained eligibility age (65 and over) |
(2,923) | (2,648) | (2,958) | (2,747) | (2,558) |
| Participants who have not attained eligibility age |
(12,887) | (12,032) | (18,147) | (17,365) | (15,639) |
| Future participants | (2,546) | (2,411) | (4,673) | (4,506) | (5,118) |
| All current and future participants | (18,356) | (17,091) | (25,778) | (24,619) | (23,315) |
| Present value of future expenditures in excess of future revenue |
(3,252)1 | (2,683)2 | (13,770)3 | (12,736)4 | (12,292)5 |
| Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance (Medicare Part B): 14 | |||||
| Revenue (Premiums) from: | |||||
| Participants who have attained eligibility age (65 and over) |
570 | 538 | 498 | 461 | 433 |
| Participants who have not attained eligibility age |
3,651 | 3,460 | 4,224 | 3,859 | 3,184 |
| Future participants | 865 | 839 | 1,270 | 1,158 | 1,172 |
| All current and future participants | 5,086 | 4,836 | 5,992 | 5,478 | 4,789 |
| Expenditures for Scheduled Future Benefits for: | |||||
| Participants who have attained eligibility age (65 and over) |
(2,343) | (2,166) | (2,142) | (1,986) | (1,834) |
| Participants who have not attained eligibility age |
(13,489) | (12,587) | (16,342) | (14,949) | (12,130) |
| Future participants | (3,108) | (2,984) | (4,672) | (4,262) | (4,257) |
| All current and future participants | (18,940) | (17,737) | (23,156) | (21,197) | (18,221) |
| Present value of future expenditures in excess of future revenue 6 |
(13,854)1 | (12,901)2 | (17,165)3 | (15,719)4 | (13,432)5 |
| Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance (Medicare Part D): 14 | |||||
| Revenue (Premiums and State Transfers) from: | |||||
| Participants who have attained eligibility age (65 and over) |
173 | 165 | 140 | 123 | 167 |
| Participants who have not attained eligibility age | 1,608 | 1,626 | 1,442 | 1,380 | 1,627 |
| Future participants | 703 | 694 | 618 | 604 | 611 |
| All current and future participants | 2,484 | 2,486 | 2,199 | 2,107 | 2,405 |
| Expenditures for Scheduled Future Benefits for: | |||||
| Participants who have attained eligibility age (65 and over) |
(695) | (646) | (595) | (581) | (794) |
| Participants who have not attained eligibility age | (6,438) | (6,355) | (6,144) | (6,527) | (7,273) |
| Future participants | (2,817) | (2,714) | (2,632) | (2,856) | (2,699) |
| All current and future participants | (9,950) | (9,715) | (9,371) | (9,964) | (10,766) |
| Present value of future expenditures in excess of future revenue 6 |
(7,466)1 | (7,229)2 | (7,172) 3 | (7,857) 4 | (8,361) 5 |
| Railroad Retirement: | |||||
| Revenue (Contributions and Earmarked Taxes) from: | |||||
| Participants who have attained eligibility | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Participants who have not attained eligibility | 46 | 47 | 48 | 43 | 41 |
| Future participants | 65 | 66 | 70 | 54 | 54 |
| All current and future participants | 117 | 118 | 123 | 102 | 100 |
| Expenditures for Scheduled Future Benefits for: | |||||
| Participants who have attained eligibility | (109) | (105) | (102) | (97) | (93) |
| Participants who have not attained eligibility | (86) | (88) | (91) | (88) | (86) |
| Future participants | (28) | (27) | (30) | (26) | (26) |
| All current and future participants | (223) | (220) | (223) | (212) | (205) |
| Present value of future expenditures in excess of future revenue 7 |
(106) 1 | (103) 2 | (100) 3 | (109) 4 | (105) 5 |
| Black Lung (Part C): | |||||
| Present value of future revenue in excess of future expenditures 8 |
5 9 | 6 10 | 6 11 | 5 12 | 5 13 |
| Total present value of future expenditures in excess of future revenue | (33,830) | (30,857) | (45,878) | (42,970) | (40,948) |
| Social Insurance Summary: 14 | |||||
| Participants who have attained eligibility age: | |||||
| Revenue (e.g., Contributions and earmarked taxes) | 1,737 | 1,628 | 1,427 | 1,333 | 1,260 |
| Expenditures for scheduled future benefits | (14,688) | (13,661) | (13,262) | (12,369) | (11,608) |
| Present value of future expenditures in excess of future revenue |
(12,951) | (12,033) | (11,835) | (11,036) | (10,348) |
| Participants who have not attained eligibility age: | |||||
| Revenue (e.g., Contributions and earmarked taxes) | 33,620 | 32,263 | 30,621 | 29,851 | 28,342 |
| Expenditures for scheduled future benefits | (66,942) | (63,287) | (70,931) | (67,950) | (63,056) |
| Present value of future expenditures in excess of future revenue |
(33,322) | (31,024) | (40,310) | (38,099) | (34,714) |
| Closed-group – Total present value of future expenditures in excess of future revenue | (46,272) | (43,057) | (52,145) | (49,135) | (45,062) |
| Future participants: | |||||
| Revenue (e.g., Contributions and earmarked taxes) | 29,037 | 28,075 | 25,491 | 24,743 | 22,828 |
| Expenditures for scheduled future benefits | (16,594) | (15,875) | (19,224) | (18,578) | (18,714) |
| Present value of future revenue in excess of future expenditures |
12,443 | 12,200 | 6,267 | 6,165 | 4,114 |
| Open-group – Total present value of future expenditures in excess of future revenue | (33,830) | (30,857) | (45,878) | (42,970) | (40,948) |
|
1 The projection period is 1/1/2011 -12/31/2085 and the valuation date is 1/1/2011.
2 The projection period is 1/1/2010 -12/31/2084 and the valuation date is 1/1/2010. 3The projection period is 1/1/2009 -12/31/2083 and the valuation date is 1/1/2009. 4 The projection period is 1/1/2008 -12/31/2082 and the valuation date is 1/1/2008. 5 The projection period is 1/1/2007 -12/31/2081 and the valuation date is 1/1/2007. 6 These amounts represent the present value of the future transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury to the Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Fund. These future intragovernmental transfers are included as income in both HHS’ and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ Financial Reports but are not income from the Governmentwide perspective of this report. 7 These amounts approximate the present value of the future financial interchange and the future transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury to the Social Security Equivalent Benefit Account (see discussion of Railroad Retirement Program in the unaudited supplemental information section of this report). They are included as income in the Railroad Retirement Financial Report but are not income from the Governmentwide perspective of this report. 8 Does not include interest expense accruing on the outstanding debt. 9 The projection period is 9/30/2011 -9/30/2040 and the valuation date is 9/30/2011. 10 The projection period is 9/30/2010 -9/30/2040 and the valuation date is 9/30/2010. 11 The projection period is 9/30/2009 -9/30/2040 and the valuation date is 9/30/2009. 12 The projection period is 9/30/2008 -9/30/2040 and the valuation date is 9/30/2008. 13 The projection period is 9/30/2007 -9/30/2040 and the valuation date is 9/30/2007. 14 Participants for the Social Security and Medicare programs are assumed to be the “closed-group” of individuals who are at least 15 years of age at the start of the projection period, and are participating as either taxpayers, beneficiaries, or both, except for the 2007 Medicare programs for which current participants are assumed to be at least 18 instead of 15 years of age. Totals may not equal the sum of components due to rounding. The accompanying notes are an integral part of these financial statements. |
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2 Present values recognize that a dollar paid or collected in the future is worth less than a dollar today, because a dollar today could be invested and earn interest. To calculate a present value, future amounts are thus reduced using an assumed interest rate, and those reduced amounts are summed.(Back to Content)
